What's Emerging December 2023
A newsletter on interesting stuff that is emerging around the world so you can think about strategy.
Welcome to our December newsletter.
This is our last newsletter for the year while we take a break over the summer period.
We will be back with a newsletter at the end of January where we will scrupulously avoid the mania for predictions for the year.
If you are interested in talking to us about any of our strategy approaches, foresight approaches, workshops, or conference presentations for next year, please Contact Us.
The Emergent Futures Team
In case you missed it. The most popular link from the last edition:
What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024
The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year...........…..Read more
What are we Writing About?
Paul has written a piece on thinking abut the future for Our Community but that has not been published yet. But here is a blast from the past about an experiential scenario creation process that Paul participated in in Phoenix Arizona: Designing an experiential scenario: The People Who Vanished
What’s Emerging
Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning
AI tool GNoME finds 2.2 million new crystals, including 380,000 stable materials that could power future technologies Paul: as many of you know I am a bit of a sceptic when it comes to the current hype on LLM models but this is an area that could really bear fruit Read more
NHTSA scraps proposed vehicle-to-vehicle communication mandate
If finalized, it would have required all new vehicles to have dedicated short-range communication systems that transmit and receive basic messages about the vehicles' speed, direction, braking and other data............…..Read More (subscription required)
Second French city dumps hydrogen bus plan for cheaper electric buses
The city of Pau cited frequent breakdowns and increasingly costly hydrogen fuel bills for its decision to end its four year experiment with hydrogen powered rapid transit buses.............……. Read more
3 reasons why removing grazing animals from Australia’s arid lands for carbon credits is a bad idea
Projects have sprung up in absurd areas such as Alice Springs, Coober Pedy, and the Nullarbor Plain where few trees grow naturally, and where those that do grow are rarely eaten by livestock. These projects are currently producing over 6 million carbon credit units each year for tree growth that either can’t happen, or where growth would have happened anyway....……. Read More
In historic decision, FDA approves a CRISPR-based medicine for treatment of sickle cell disease
The new medicine, called Casgevy, is made by Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR Therapeutics. Its authorization is a scientific triumph for the technology that can efficiently and precisely repair DNA mutations — ushering in a new era of genetic medicines for inherited diseases...........…..Read more
Monetary Authority of Singapore to start 'live' wholesale CBDC pilot
The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced it will pilot a live central bank digital currency for wholesale interbank settlement next year........…..Read more
Bard can now watch YouTube videos for you
The bot’s YouTube integration is getting a handy upgrade so it can analyze individual videos to surface specific information for you — like key points or recipe ingredients — without ever pressing play. That’s potentially a hugely useful tool, but could spell more worry about generative AI for creators.....….. Read more
Australia’s first mobile cooling hub is ready for searing heat this summer – and people who are homeless helped design it
Researchers are working with people experiencing homelessness, St Vincent’s Hospital and the City of Sydney to design, deliver and evaluate a mobile “cooling hub” this summer. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting an unusually hot summer. The pilot project in Surry Hills will use low-cost strategies, including misting fans, to keep 54 people at a time cool on the hottest of days. Paul: both good that this is happening and bad that it needs to happen……. Read more
Electric trucks set to conquer roads with over 1 million units by 2030
The latest research on the Electric Truck Market suggests a healthy outlook. In 2022, the market was estimated at 101,499 units, with a moderate but steady growth of 34.2% CAGR expected until 2030. That means we’ll reach a total of 1,067,985 units – a gradual but positive journey ahead for electric trucks......…..Read more
Due to AI, “We are about to enter the era of mass spying,” says Bruce Schneier
In an editorial for, renowned security researcher Bruce Schneier warned that AI models may enable a new era of mass spying, allowing companies and governments to automate the process of analyzing and summarizing large volumes of conversation data, fundamentally lowering barriers to spying activities that currently require human labor............….. Read more
New solar installations to hit 413 GW this year, says Bloomberg NEF
This capacity will mostly be driven by China’s contribution of 240 GW, along with strong growth in many other global regions...........….….Read more
32-bit MCUs Handle Heavy ML Workloads on Battery-Operated IoT Devices
Alif claims its new Ensemble line of microcontrollers efficiently processes heavy machine learning workloads on battery-powered devices...….…Read more.
Coal will be all but gone by 2034 under Australia’s latest energy roadmap
Australia’s coal power stations will all close in 2038 – and variable renewable energy capacity will need to triple by 2030 and increase sevenfold by 2050. The Integrated System Plan (ISP) is a whole-of-system plan that provides an integrated roadmap for the efficient development of the National Electricity Market (NEM) over the next 20 years and beyond....… Read more.
Employment program makes life cycle easier for young unemployed
A partnership between social enterprise Good Cycles and electric bike company Lime is helping struggling young people find their place in the world of work. Paul: happy to have played a small role in helping Good Cycles through being a partner at Social Venture Partners Melbourne....……...… Read more.
Business and Other Tips
You can sign up for ChatGPT Plus again, no waiting required
OpenAI had to close to new ChatGPT Plus subscriptions just days after its developers' conference, DevDay. Since then, anyone who wanted to sign up for ChatGPT Plus had to sign up for a waitlist -- until now. OpenAI just reopened ChatGPT Plus subscriptions for anyone who wants to sign up; no waiting necessary..…..read more
Top Six Time Wasters To Avoid Throughout the Workday
Time wasters are all the hurdles that get in the way of our main objectives. Anything that diverts your attention from important tasks, disrupts your schedule, or prevents you from achieving your goals is a time waster. Time, once gone, is irretrievable. Yet, we can’t stop ourselves from wasting time. Reflect for a moment: how much time do you unknowingly waste on things that serve no purpose? Paul: we all do these things...…. Read More
Teams Solve Problems Faster When They’re More Cognitively Diverse
Paul: an oldie but a goodie……Read More
Please forward this email to anyone you think might be interested in it, and they can subscribe using the button below. Or contact us directly if you want to discuss any of the issues.