What's Emerging end of November 2023
A newsletter on interesting stuff that is emerging around the world so you can think about strategy.
Welcome to our end-of-November newsletter
First of all apologies for not sending out the mid-November newsletter but Paul got a severe bacterial food poisoning infection which ended up with him in hospital for 3 days and a full week after that to recover. All good now.
In the next few weeks, Paul will be working with the I CAN network on the future of their online mentoring program, as well as exploring the business model for a new social enterprise he is thinking of establishing. He will also be continuing to work with RSL Victoria on implementing their new strategic plan and with the Y on foresight approaches for advocacy and policy and their plans to open schools for disengaged young people in Victoria.
If you are interested in talking to us about any of these approaches, please Contact Us.
The Emergent Futures Team
In case you missed it. The most popular link from the last edition:
First word discovered in unopened Herculaneum scroll by 21yo computer science student
The Herculaneum papyri, ancient scrolls housed in the library of a private villa near Pompeii, were buried and carbonized by the eruption of Vesuvius in 79 AD. For almost 2,000 years, this lone surviving library from antiquity was buried underground under 20 meters of volcanic mud. In the 1700s, they were excavated, and while they were in some ways preserved by the eruption, they were so fragile that they would turn to dust if mishandled. How do you read a scroll you can’t open? For hundreds of years, this question went unanswered...........…..Read more
What are we Writing About?
Paul’s presentation to The Y CEO forum on anticipation versus responsiveness is up on our website. You can access it by going to our Home Page and looking under “our latest work”
What’s Emerging
Humane AI pin launch
With about a quarter billion fund, Humane AI(led by Imran Chaudhri) recently launched AI pin which aims to take the full power of AI everywhere and have it weave seamlessly into our everyday lives. Paul: I have mixed feelings about this. First of all it has a lot of interesting capabilities (if it works as promised), on the other hand it is weird and creepy. My bet would be the capabilities are the most important part and will end up being absorbed into other form factors.
World's smallest particle accelerator is 54 million times smaller than the Large Hadron Collider, and it works
Scientists have created the world's first nanophotonic electron accelerator, which speeds negatively charged particles with mini laser pulses and is small enough to fit on a coin...........…..Read More
Quantum dilution refrigerator set to be installed at the Stawell Underground Physics Laboratory
It's an important milestone for the Stawell Underground Physics Laboratory (SUPL), a lab buried deep within a Victorian gold mine designed to measure dark matter and conduct extremely precise quantum experiments.............……. Read more
Amazon Inks Partnership With Facebook and Instagram
Amazon and Meta have partnered to link Facebook and Instagram accounts with Amazon, enable on-platform commerce, and share data for ad targeting......……. Read More
What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024
The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year...........…..Read more
Climate-smart cows could deliver 10-20x more milk in Global South
A team of animal scientists from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign is set to deliver a potential game changer for subsistence farmers in Tanzania: cows that produce up to 20 times the milk of indigenous breeds. The effort, published in Animal Frontiers, marries the milk-producing prowess of Holsteins and Jerseys with the heat, drought, and disease-resistance of Gyrs, an indigenous cattle breed common in tropical countries. Five generations of crosses result in cattle capable of producing 10 liters of milk per day under typical Tanzanian management, blasting past the half-liter average yield of indigenous cattle. Paul: had a conversation last week with a veterinarian about the potential for these sorts of approaches in South East Asia and may be heading to Vietnam to talk about future ag technologies for a veterinary company there. ........…..Read more
The world’s 280 million electric bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars
On the world’s roads last year, there were over 20 million electric vehicles and 1.3 million commercial EVs such as buses, delivery vans and trucks. But these numbers of four or more wheel vehicles are wholly eclipsed by two- and three-wheelers. There were over 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers on the road last year. Their sheer popularity is already cutting demand for oil by a million barrels of oil a day. .....….. Read more
The Evolution of Stretch | Boston Dynamics
Base editing, a new form of gene therapy, sharply lowers bad cholesterol in clinical trial
A technique for precisely rewriting the genetic code directly in the body has slashed “bad” cholesterol levels—possibly for life—in three people prone to dangerously high levels of the artery-clogging fat. The feat relied on a blood infusion of a so-called base editor, designed to disable a liver protein, PCSK9, that regulates cholesterol.........…..Read more
No evidence screen time is negative for children’s cognitive development and well-being: Oxford Study
In a study of nearly 12,000 children in the United States, no evidence was found to show that screen time impacted their brain function or well-being. Using data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, the largest long-term study of brain development and child health in the United States, researchers from Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, University of Oregon, Tilburg University, and University of Cambridge analysed the cognitive function of 9-12 year old children alongside their self-reported screen time use. ...........….. Read more
Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected
Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). Analysts estimate that almost half of the decline will come from declining prices of EV raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt. Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030, writes Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Goldman Sachs Research’s Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research, in the team’s report..........….….Read more
Google DeepMind Weather AI can forecast extreme weather faster and more accurately
In a paper published in Science, Google DeepMind introduced GraphCast, a state-of-the-art AI model able to make medium-range weather forecasts with unprecedented accuracy. GraphCast predicts weather conditions up to 10 days in advance more accurately and much faster than the industry gold-standard weather simulation system – the High Resolution Forecast (HRES), produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)..….…Read more.
Ferrero Group, the company behind Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, to stop growing hazelnuts in Australia
Italian confectionery company the Ferrero Group is giving up on a $70 million hazelnut farm near Narrandera in southern NSW, saying the long-term climate is unsuitable....… Read more.
Crunch time for cultivated meat: ‘Probably 70-90% of players will fail in the next year’
On paper, cultivated meat might seem like a no-brainer. Unlike plant-based options, which still don’t quite hit the spot for many consumers, it promises the allure of ‘real’ meat without the ethical and environmental baggage that comes with plundering our oceans and raising billions of sentient land animals for food. In practice, however, there’s no playbook for biomanufacturing meat at scale.....……...… Read more.
Business and Other Tips
Rightcharge introduces game-changing electric fuel card to streamline fleet management
Fleet managers can now streamline payments for all public, home, and workplace charging into a single bill. With the Rightcharge Card, drivers gain access to an extensive network comprising 30 different public charging networks and 34,500+ charge points. Rightcharge’s innovative approach involves making direct payments to an employee’s energy supplier. These payments cover the EV charging portion of their home bill. This groundbreaking approach ensures drivers are never out of pocket..…..read more
Even Short Runs Have Major Health Benefits
Jogging a mile or two a few times a week can help you live longer and reduce your risk of disease. Running, even 5 to 10 min/day and at slow speeds <6 miles/h, is associated with markedly reduced risks of death from all causes and cardiovascular disease....…. Read More (New York Times) or One of the original studies quoted.
How to spot a fake data blocker that could hack your computer in seconds
OK, first off, what are data blockers? It's a small dongle that adds a layer of protection between your device and the charging point you're attaching it to, and it allows charging to happen but blocks any data from being communicated by physically severing the USB data lines, putting an air gap between the USB port and your smartphone, laptop, or whatever you are charging. Fake ones can put you at risk. Paul: as I have been giving our PortaPow Data blockers as prizes at workshops and conferences I thought I had better post this.
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