What's Emerging mid-May 2025

A newsletter on interesting stuff that is emerging around the world so you can think about strategy.

May 20, 2025

Welcome to our newsletter for mid May 2025.

In the next few weeks Paul will continue to work on the strategy implementation consultation process with RSL Victoria, and work with a sport association on their planning. He will also be assisting Blue Light Victoria on their strategy and working with the Shrine of Remembrance on reviewing their strategic plan. Paul will also continue working on his new startup which now has partial funding. He will also continue in his role of Chair with venture philanthropy organisation Social Venture Partners Melbourne. This includes launching a new low bono consulting model for the not-for-profit sector which will provide low cost/high value consulting services with all the money generated going to Social Venture Partners Melbourne to continue their pro bono work in the sector.

If you are interested in talking to us about any of our strategy approaches, foresight approaches, workshops, or conference presentations, please Contact Us.

The Emergent Futures Team

In case you missed it. The most popular link from the last edition was :

Inside arXiv—the Most Transformative Platform in All of Science

If arXiv were to stop functioning, scientists from every corner of the planet would suffer an immediate and profound disruption. “Everybody in math and physics uses it,” Scott Aaronson, a computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, told me. “I scan it every night.”....….….Read more

What are we Writing About?

Paul has written a short piece about the Chinese car market and his previous foresight work for a major international car company where one of the scenarios came true……. Read More

What’s Emerging

Crushed basalt used in roads could cut expensive fertiliser bills, trap carbon dioxide

Once treated as mining waste, basalt is now being spread on trial plots to test its use as a natural fertiliser........…..Read More

Waymo reports 250,000 paid robotaxi rides per week in U.S.

That figure is up from 200,000 in February, before Waymo opened in Austin and expanded in the San Francisco Bay Area in March...….….Read more

Volvo Trucks reaches milestone of over 5,000 electric trucks sold

The 5,000 units milestone comes after Volvo Trucks sold its first electric trucks to customers in 2019, spanning 50 countries – with Germany, the Netherlands, the U.S., Norway, and Sweden existing as its biggest sales markets for such trucks. Combined, these electric trucks already in operation have already driven nearly 170 million kilometres in service across endless operation types, proving the diverse capabilities of electric trucks. ....…..Read More

S4 Capital trades billable hours for outputs as AI redraws agency economics

“If AI cuts 20% of the time it takes to manage our media,” they’re asking, “does that mean fees drop 20% too?” The answer, of course, isn’t that simple but the expectation is there, and agencies have no choice but to adapt. Agencies either adapt or get left behind. The old billable hours model is slowly being swapped out for output-based pricing — less about time spent, more about results delivered...............…..Read More

JPMorgan Says India-Assembled iPhone Within Spitting Distance of China Price

India’s plants near Chennai and Bengaluru already produce about 3.5 million phones a month — roughly 40 million a year. Covering America’s needs would require an extra 35 million units annually, a scale analysts say the country’s labour pool and land reserves can handle. Even if New Delhi copied Washington’s 20% duty, the India-made handset would still undercut a U.S. build......……. Read More

Skype is dead. Here’s why it almost wasn’t born

It used to cost money to call someone, and if that someone was in another country, you would pay a premium: In the mid-90s, a prime time call to Paris from New York cost around $113 an hour (in 2025 dollars). Then came the internet, paving the way for cheap and free calls to and from anywhere in the world. Guess what? Traditional long-distance telephone companies felt threatened. Paul: I remember sitting in a telephone booth in Italy in 1988 and calling home. It displayed the call cost in real time and was in Lire, so it whirled around like a poker machine display...……. Read More

Australia's childhood vaccination rates are declining, sparking fears about risk to herd immunity

Vaccination rates among children and teens have reached "critical" levels, according to experts, who are warning deaths are inevitable if Australia does not do more to turn around a steady decline in immunisation rates......…..Read more

Electric vehicle sales hit 20% milestone globally, driven by China and emerging markets

China led the global shift with 11 million EVs sold, making up nearly half of its total vehicle sales and reinforcing its status as the largest EV market. The strongest relative growth, however, came from South-East Asia and Latin America, where EV sales surged by 50% year-on-year.....…..Read more

The FDA Just Approved CRISPR-Edited Pigs for the Dinner Table

PIC’s edit is intended to tackle the virus behind porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). It knocks out a receptor on pig cells that is commonly hijacked by the virus to cause infection. The modified pigs should be resistant to nearly all strains of the PRRS virus circulating today (some rare subtypes may still cause infection).....…..Read more

Lufthansa Group introduces AI software to reduce in-flight meal wastage

The Lufthansa Group has revealed how it is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to reduce the amount of wastage created by overproducing inflight meals and to reduce costs. The software, known within the airline as ‘Tray Tracker’, has been developed in-house by Lufthansa Group technicians to precisely measure and reduce the number of inflight meals that are returned and left uneaten, leading to them having to be disposed of.....…..Read more

Tourism to the US is tanking. Flight Centre is facing a $100m hit as a result

Flight Centre, one of the world’s largest travel agencies, has warned it could lose more than A$100 million in earnings this year, citing weakening demand for travel to the United States. In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), the company pointed to “volatile trading conditions” linked to changes in US entry policies.....…..Read more

Long-term EV battery health continues to improve, shows new study from Generational

The new data shows that for used EVs that had covered around 90,000 miles, 2016 and 2017 models recorded an average battery health of 75.87%. However, for 2023 models that had covered the same number of miles, battery health stood at a higher average of 86%. Even at a lower mileage of 50,000, 2023 EVs saw battery health, on average, 5% higher than 2016 and 2017 models....…..Read more

Business and Other Tips

How Google are using AI to combat the latest scams

Can you cut your neighbour's overhanging trees? Here are the rules

Here are the rules for Australia……….Read More

Store-bought bee hotels doing more harm than good for native species

Pre-made bee hotels being sold in shops and online are often not designed to protect native bees. Experts warn that cheap imported options may actually harm native species, as they can be treated with chemicals..………..Read More

What's Emerging